A condensation of the book, The Competent President by Ken Craddock 2025

The Competent President: 15% Condensation 

Introduction & The Core Problem

Kenneth Craddock's central argument in "The Competent President" is introduced immediately: the United States has failed to elect a president possessing the necessary cognitive competence in the 21st century. This failure is linked to accumulating unresolved national problems and inadequate global leadership. The book aims to provide voters with tools derived from Elliott Jaques's Requisite Organization (R.O.) theory to recognize the required capabilities before casting a vote, distinguishing true competence from mere confidence or popularity. Craddock asserts that the difference a competent president makes is profound ("like night and day") and necessary for the republic's survival. The analysis primarily uses presidential debates since 1960 as a key data source for observing candidate capabilities.  

Chapter 1: In Plain Sight - The Founders' Approach and Modern Blindness

Chapter 1 posits that the Founding Fathers inherently understood and selected for presidential capability, viewing it as "self-evident". They designed the presidency implicitly around George Washington's capabilities. Craddock suggests the founders used criteria similar to the R.O. tools he presents, but these methods have been largely forgotten. He introduces the core challenge: identifying nominees who possess the requisite ability to handle the job's complexity and time demands, warning that modern political analysis, focused on the horizontal left-right spectrum, fails to reveal this crucial vertical dimension of competence. The chapter also introduces key concepts distinct from modern usage: "civic virtue" (virtù), a public morality distinct from private morality, rooted in Iroquois principles and central to the founders' thinking; and "happiness," defined not as personal contentment but as the result of a government providing safety and responsiveness, also derived from Iroquois influence. Craddock argues the US goal, established by the founders, is the ongoing elimination of "Absolute rule".  

Chapter 2: The President and the Voter - Assessing Capability vs. Popularity

This chapter delves into the historical tension between electing someone able to do the job versus someone with the popular support to win it. It draws an analogy to the "Moneyball" shift in baseball, where traditional metrics (home runs) were replaced by a more effective, data-driven criterion (getting on base). Craddock argues voters need a similar mental shift to prioritize presidential capability.  

The chapter reviews America's historical confrontations with Absolutism (Royal, Fascist, Communist), framing the Cold War presidents (Truman to Bush 41) as a remarkably competent group. It then introduces the core R.O. assessment tools:  

1. Cognitive-capability (Cc): Measured by sustained Applied Logic (complexity of information processing, C.I.P.).  
2. Time-horizon (TH): The ability to work towards distant goals and anticipate future consequences.  
3. Impact-horizon (IH): A historical assessment of the lasting effect of a president's decisions.  

Craddock emphasizes the value of presidential debates for assessing C.I.P., citing Alison Brause's research showing voters often (though not always) chose the candidate displaying higher cognitive complexity. He updates Brause's analysis through 2024, noting ties broken by age (interpreted as potential for growth) and instances where the correlation reversed or was ambiguous. A key finding highlighted is that in roughly half the elections since 1960, both parties nominated candidates using the same (often inadequate) level of logic.  

Chapter 3: Before Your Vote - Logics, Time Horizons, and the Selection Process

Chapter 3 examines the evolution of the presidential selection process, from the founders' elite selection and the Electoral College's original intent to Congressional Caucuses, Jacksonian expansion of suffrage, and the rise of primaries. It argues that while primaries aimed for greater democracy (Jefferson's ideal), they often fail to vet for Washington's criterion: requisite capability.  

Craddock details Jaques's four modern logic types within each Information Order:

• Dynamic/Complex: Parallel (systems thinking) and Serial (if-then causal chains).
• Static/Simple: Cumulative (lists, multiple supporting statements) and Declarative (single statements/directives).

He emphasizes that the presidency requires dynamic logic (Serial or Parallel) operating within the Abstract Order, corresponding to a Time-horizon of at least twenty years. Candidates operating only with static logic ("presiders") may manage routine duties but fail complex challenges. Voters can learn to detect these logic levels by focusing on the form of argumentation in debates, rather than just the content. The chapter warns against confusing dominance (a personality trait) with actual cognitive competence, although both can have a "cowing" effect. It concludes by noting the crucial link between the logic level used and the ability to handle information complexity over time, stressing the voter's responsibility in discerning this capability before the election.  

Chapter 4: Two Competent Moderns - Applying Washington's Criteria

This chapter focuses on illustrating presidential competence, using Craddock's interpretation of "Washington's criteria" – primarily, the capability to solve the problems inherent in the office with solutions lasting at least twenty years. He argues this requires dynamic logic (Level 7 or 8 in the Abstract Order). Kennedy and Reagan are presented as the clearest modern examples who met this standard and demonstrated it before election via debates.

• John F. Kennedy (1961-1963): Assessed as operating at Level 7 (Serial Logic), Kennedy is portrayed as having grown into the role despite lacking prior executive experience. His famous Inaugural Address quote ("Ask not...") is cited as evoking civic virtue. Craddock highlights Kennedy's handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis as a key demonstration of competence: JFK's ability to seek diverse advice (ExCom), think from Khrushchev's perspective, maintain flexibility (the 'quarantine'), control his own military, and ultimately force the Soviets to back down while leaving Khrushchev an 'out' are seen as hallmarks of Level 7 capability. His commitment to landing on the moon within the decade is presented as another example of long-term (nine-year project), high-complexity strategic thinking. Craddock acknowledges JFK's errors (Bay of Pigs, flawed judgment in Vietnam via Lodge) but emphasizes his growth in office and ability to use power effectively. His debate performance in 1960, where he used Serial logic against Nixon's Cumulative logic, is cited as a pre-election indicator of this capability that voters perceived. Kennedy's estimated Time-horizon is over twenty years.  

• Ronald Reagan (1981-1989): Also assessed at Level 7, Reagan is credited with recognizing the Soviet Union's underlying weakness and strategically escalating the Cold War to bring about its end. Craddock points to Reagan's use of Serial logic in the 1980 and 1984 debates (particularly his summation on SDI) as pre-election evidence of his capability. Key actions highlighted include his tough stance against PATCO, his economic policies ("supply-side," tax cuts, leading to deficits but also reduced inflation – though Craddock notes external factors influenced inflation), and his effective rhetoric ("Morning in America," Challenger speech). His handling of the end of the Cold War – recognizing Soviet weakness, pushing with SDI (seen partly as a bluff), leveraging the Vetrov leaks and Chernobyl's impact, and negotiating INF with Gorbachev – is framed as competent strategic action. Craddock notes Reagan's flaws: ideological rigidity, the Iran-Contra affair (seen as poor judgment and use of deniability), massive debt increase, and signs of decline ("agedness") late in his second term. Reagan's estimated Time-horizon is also over twenty years.  

Craddock emphasizes that both Kennedy and Reagan, despite political differences, demonstrated the requisite cognitive complexity (Level 7) and long-term perspective needed for the presidency, aligning with "Washington's criteria."

Chapter 5: Washington's Warning - Competence vs. Adversarial Capability

This chapter explores a crucial caveat to presidential competence: "Washington's Warning." Craddock interprets this not just as avoiding foreign entanglements, but as recognizing the danger posed when a U.S. president faces an adversary operating at a higher level of cognitive capability. When such a mismatch occurs, even a president assessed as competent for the role itself (Level 7) can be outmaneuvered and ultimately fail.

• Lyndon B. Johnson (1963-1969): Craddock, citing Jaques, assesses LBJ as competent (Level 7). He highlights LBJ's masterful legislative success in passing Civil Rights, Voting Rights, Medicare/Medicaid, and launching the "Great Society" initiatives immediately after taking office. However, his presidency became defined by the Vietnam War. Craddock argues LBJ, despite his capability, was operating at a lower cognitive level than his primary adversary, Ho Chi Minh. This mismatch explains LBJ's inability to see through the "fog of war," his over-reliance on flawed metrics (body counts) and strategies (bombing, M-16), his failure to grasp the situation's complexity (leading to the "credibility gap"), and his ultimate political destruction following the Tet Offensive. LBJ's personal flaws (ego, inability to share credit) exacerbated his isolation. His Time-horizon is estimated at over twenty years but deemed "deeply limited" by the Vietnam context.  

• Richard M. Nixon (1969-1974): Similarly assessed by Jaques/Craddock as competent (Level 7), having grown cognitively since his 1960 run. Nixon's major foreign policy achievements – opening relations with China and achieving détente with the Soviet Union – required high-level strategic (Serial logic) thinking. He also implemented significant domestic policies (EPA, HMOs). However, like LBJ, he was conceptually outmatched by Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam. Furthermore, Nixon's deep-seated paranoia, resentments ("enemies list"), and willingness to subvert the law for political gain (Watergate break-in and cover-up, abuse of power) ultimately led to his downfall. Craddock suggests Ho Chi Minh might have anticipated Nixon's paranoia and set traps (like the alleged interference in 1968 peace talks) that Nixon fell into. Nixon's resignation under threat of impeachment demonstrated the system ultimately rejecting his absolutist tendencies, but the damage was done. His Time-horizon is assessed as over twenty years, but critically undermined by his "flawed psyche".  

This section concludes that while LBJ and Nixon possessed the cognitive capability theoretically required for the presidency, their encounters with a more complex strategic thinker in Ho Chi Minh, combined with their own specific flaws, led to failure, illustrating the profound importance of "Washington's Warning."

This covers the analysis of specific presidents used to exemplify competence (Kennedy, Reagan) and the crucial warning about capability mismatches with adversaries (LBJ, Nixon vs. Ho Chi Minh).

Chapter 6: Vertical Adult Growth - Deepening the Requisite Framework

This chapter elaborates on the core theoretical underpinnings of Craddock's argument, focusing on the vertical nature of adult cognitive development as described by Jaques, contrasting it with IQ or horizontal political views. Craddock details Jaques's concept of Orders of Information Complexity (OIC), which adults progress through. After the childhood Concrete order (using sentences for visible things), adults operate primarily in:  

• Symbolic Order (Levels 1-4): Using sentences to handle symbolic entities and intangible ideas not physically present. Most of the adult population functions here, including employees and many managers using Declarative or Cumulative logic. Some professionals and general managers reach Serial or Parallel logic (Levels 3-4) within this order.
• Abstract Order (Levels 5-8): Required for executive roles. Thinking moves beyond single sentences to handle abstract concepts, categories, and systems, often requiring paragraphs for articulation. This order corresponds to significantly longer Time-horizons, moving from years to decades. Craddock reiterates that the presidency requires dynamic logic (Serial - Level 7, or Parallel - Level 8) within this Abstract Order. Only about 1% of the adult population operates in the Abstract Order, and only a fraction of those use the requisite dynamic logic.  
• Universal Order (Level 9+): The realm of "universal geniuses" whose work fundamentally changes societal thinking (e.g., Einstein, possibly Franklin and Hamilton).

Craddock presents the Population Profile (Table 6.2), visually mapping logic levels and time horizons. He highlights that the average voter today operates at Level 2 (Symbolic Cumulative, 5-7 month time horizon), whereas in 1787, the average (property-owning male) voter likely operated at Level 3 (Symbolic Serial/Parallel, 1-2 year time horizon). This widening cognitive gap between the electorate and the presidency's demands, resulting from franchise expansion, makes it harder for voters to discern the necessary capability. He also cites supporting research from psychology (McClelland's achievement motivation, Kahneman & Tversky's prospection theory) and industry (Sears Roebuck studies showing cognitive ability as critical for managers). The chapter concludes by defining the "presider" – someone using static logic (Levels 5 or 6) who can manage but not truly solve complex problems, leading to issues festering and crises potentially overwhelming them.

Chapter 7: Holding the Tiger - Navigating the Post-Watergate Era (Ford, Carter, Bush 41)

This chapter examines the presidencies immediately following Nixon's resignation, framing them as attempts to restore trust and manage the Cold War ("Holding the Tiger") but often falling short of dynamic competence. The Watergate scandal itself weakened both parties, splitting the Republicans and making the Democrats unwieldy, while simultaneously increasing the perceived need for televised debates. The rise of the modern primary system also made "outsider" candidacies more common.

• Gerald Ford (1974-1977): Appointed VP and elevated after Nixon's resignation, Ford's honesty was initially welcomed. However, his pardon of Nixon, done without political preparation, shattered public trust and overshadowed his presidency. He struggled with economic "stagflation" and appeared out of touch on issues like the auto industry's fuel standards and the New York City financial crisis ("Ford to City: Drop Dead"). His 1976 debate gaffe regarding Poland further damaged him. Craddock assesses him at Level 5 (Static Declarative), capable but overwhelmed (Time-horizon: ~5 years).

• Jimmy Carter (1977-1981): Elected as an outsider promising honesty after Watergate. His strengths were in face-to-face diplomacy (Panama Canal Treaty, Camp David Accords). The Camp David success indicated growth into Level 6 (Cumulative Logic). However, he struggled with "stagflation," the second oil crisis, the Iran hostage crisis, and alienated party insiders. His "malaise speech," while perhaps prescient, was perceived as weak and lacking actionable solutions. His numerous initiatives lacked focus. Craddock suggests Carter operated at Level 6 (Time-horizon: ~10 years).  

• George H.W. Bush (1989-1993): An "insider" who won primarily on continuing Reagan's perceived strength. He competently managed the end of the Cold War and the Soviet collapse ("Don't poke Gorby") and orchestrated the successful international coalition for the Persian Gulf War. However, his allowing Saddam Hussein to remain in power after the war and the revelation that the invasion of Kuwait stemmed from his administration's ambiguous signals severely damaged his credibility. He struggled with economic recession and appeared out of touch (supermarket scanner incident). His breaking of the "No New Taxes" pledge, though arguably necessary, alienated conservatives. Assessed at Level 6 (Cumulative Logic, Time-horizon: ~10-15 years).

Chapter 8: Warriors, They Claimed - The 21st Century Leadership Deficit

This chapter introduces the period from 1992 onwards as the longest stretch without a president possessing the requisite Level 7+ capability, despite candidates often claiming strength ("Warriors"). Craddock argues this lack of dynamic leadership meant the fundamental goal of countering global Absolutism languished, and complex domestic problems festered.

• Bill Clinton (1993-2001): Won in 1992 largely due to Bush 41's perceived economic failures ("It's the economy, stupid") and a generational shift. Clinton achieved significant economic success, balancing the budget and presiding over expansion. However, he was constantly battling scandals (Whitewater, Lewinsky), which culminated in impeachment. Craddock notes Clinton grew from Level 6 to Level 7 capability during his second term, but lacked a "moral compass" and made decisions like repealing Glass-Steagall that contributed to future crises. The Lewinsky scandal damaged Al Gore's succession bid.

• George W. Bush (2001-2009): Elected in the controversial 2000 election (where Craddock notes both Bush and Gore operated at Level 6, with Nader playing spoiler). His presidency was defined by the 9/11 attacks and the subsequent wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Craddock heavily criticizes Bush's response, arguing it lacked strategic depth, substituted revenge for justice, ignored civic virtue, was based on faulty premises ("WMD"), and led to mission failure, erosion of American values (Abu Ghraib), and national demoralization. The poor handling of Hurricane Katrina and the 2008 financial collapse further exposed his administration's incompetence, stemming from Bush operating below the requisite capability level (Level 5/6) and delegating heavily to Cheney (Level 7). His main positive legacy cited is the PEPFAR program for AIDS in Africa.

• Barack Obama (2009-2017): Elected amidst the 2008 financial crisis, defeating McCain (both assessed at Level 6, with Obama's youth implying greater growth potential). Obama managed the TARP bailout (criticized by Craddock as insufficient to hold banks accountable), passed the Affordable Care Act, ended the Iraq War (though ISIS emerged later), and authorized the killing of Osama bin Laden. However, he faced significant obstructionism (fueled by the Tea Party and Wichita Network), struggled to project consistent strength internationally (Arab Spring, Iran nuclear deal criticism), and his education initiatives (Race to the Top) are deemed misguided. Craddock assesses him as operating at Level 6, capable of managing complex issues but not consistently demonstrating the Level 7 dynamic problem-solving needed.

This section covers the detailed explanation of Jaques's cognitive framework, the analysis of the post-Watergate "presiders" (Ford, Carter, Bush 41), and the introduction of the 21st-century presidents (Clinton, Bush 43, Obama) assessed as lacking requisite dynamic capability.

Chapter 9: The 2016 Contest and Debates - Civic Virtue and the Rise of Trump

This section introduces Craddock's third criterion for presidential evaluation: Civic Virtue. Defined not as private morality but as a public commitment to the common good, derived from Iroquois ideals via Benjamin Franklin, it involves placing community well-being ahead of self-interest. Craddock argues this value, inherent in the American psyche, provides strength beyond patriotism or nationalism and is essential for a functioning republic. He contends Donald Trump demonstrates no understanding or embodiment of this virtue, focusing instead on divisive nationalism.

The chapter then analyzes the 2016 election, highlighting the confluence of forces enabling Trump's rise. Craddock details the role of the "Wichita Network" (wealthy hard-right donors), Fox News (providing free publicity and shaping narratives), and Russian interference (disinformation via social media) in creating a favorable environment. The Republican primary debates are framed as a spectacle where Trump systematically destroyed opponents using dominance tactics, personal insults, and "gaslighting" – a structured sequence of lies designed to undermine reality and control the narrative. His appeal to declarative-level voters (C.I.P. 1 & 2) through simplistic, forceful rhetoric and the media's "recency effect" cemented his base.

On the Democratic side, the contest between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders is discussed, noting the influence of DNC "super-delegates" and the eventual win by Clinton. The fall campaign saw Clinton, though factually more accurate and arguably more qualified on paper, struggle against Trump's unconventional tactics and her own perceived weaknesses (exhaustion, handling of email controversy exacerbated by FBI Director Comey's late interventions, appearing "tone-deaf" to certain voter segments like coal miners, the "deplorables" comment). Craddock concludes neither candidate demonstrated the requisite dynamic logic (Level 7+) in the debates. Trump's narrow Electoral College victory, despite losing the popular vote, is attributed to capturing key states, the effectiveness of disinformation and voter suppression tactics, and Democratic campaign missteps.  

Chapter 10: Make America Great Again - Trump's First Term (2017-2021)

This chapter assesses Donald Trump's presidency against the R.O. framework and his campaign promises. Craddock acknowledges some positives: inheriting and continuing economic growth initiated under Obama, low unemployment (pre-pandemic), brokering the Abraham Accords, avoiding new foreign wars, and establishing the Space Force.

However, the core assessment is one of failure rooted in incompetence (Level 5 or lower capability). Trump's presidency is characterized as chaotic, driven by personal grievance, lacking coherent policy direction, and marked by attacks on institutions and norms. His management style was "shambolic," relying on inexperienced loyalists and marked by high turnover (e.g., dismissal of Rex Tillerson, assessed as Level 7, by Trump, assessed as Level 5).  

Key promises went unfulfilled (Obamacare repeal, the Wall, infrastructure) despite Republican control of Congress initially. His tax cuts primarily benefited the wealthy and corporations, vastly increasing the national debt. His approach to international relations alienated allies (NATO criticisms, withdrawal from TPP/Paris Accord) and showed naivete towards adversaries (praise for Putin, Kim Jong-un). His actions often appeared driven by "deniability" rather than accountability. His constant barrage of falsehoods eroded trust. Craddock concludes Trump failed Washington's criteria (couldn't do the job), Jefferson's criteria (couldn't unite the nation), and lacked civic virtue.

Chapter 11: Re-election 2020 and the Pandemic - Competence Tested

The 2020 election is framed against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, which Craddock argues starkly revealed Trump's incompetence. The pandemic arrived near Trump's "third-year" mark, a point where leadership impact often becomes clear. Trump's response is detailed as disastrous: initial denial, promoting quack cures, blaming China and others, suppressing scientific advice (silencing CDC, ignoring internal warnings), politicizing public health measures (masks), lacking a national plan, and prioritizing perceived economic needs over health realities. Craddock contrasts Trump's actions with China's preparations (viewing Contagion) and highlights the estimated tens of thousands of deaths attributable to delayed US action.  

The campaign saw Trump double down on divisive rhetoric and false claims of fraud. Joe Biden emerged as the Democratic nominee after consolidating moderate support. The debates were tumultuous; Trump dominated the first with interruptions, appearing bullying but incoherent. Biden seemed more empathetic but didn't clearly demonstrate Level 7 capability. The second debate was more civil but confirmed the capability assessments: Biden at Level 6 (Cumulative), Trump at Level 5 (Declarative). Craddock argues Trump lost primarily because the pandemic exposed his inability to handle a real crisis, coupled with his divisive nature and lack of character/civic virtue, leading voters to choose Biden despite his own perceived limitations. Trump's refusal to concede and the subsequent January 6th Capitol attack are presented as culminating acts against democratic norms.

Chapter 12: Biden (2021-2025) - Restoration and Lingering Issues

This chapter assesses Joe Biden's presidency up to early 2025. His term began with the promise of restoring normalcy after Trump and tackling the immediate pandemic crisis. Craddock credits Biden with a more competent pandemic response (vaccine rollout, relying on science) and significant legislative achievements like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the CHIPS and Science Act, aimed at long-term economic health and job creation. Biden also focused on restoring international alliances, particularly strengthening NATO in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

However, Biden faced persistent challenges, including inflation and immigration, exacerbated by political polarization and obstructionism. The book notes Biden operated consistently at Level 6 (Cumulative Logic), showing competence in managing inherited problems and passing legislation but not necessarily demonstrating the Level 7 dynamic thinking needed for the most profound challenges.

The narrative shifts to the 2024 election cycle. Biden's poor performance in the first debate highlighted concerns about his age ("agedness") and capabilities. His subsequent withdrawal is framed as potentially selfless but leaving Vice President Kamala Harris to inherit his unresolved issues and face Trump in a shortened general election campaign. Harris's campaign is depicted as struggling to gain traction, hampered by association with Biden's weaknesses and a critical gaffe ("not a thing that comes to mind" regarding doing things differently). Trump's refusal of further debates and focus on his base, combined with voter fatigue/memory lapse regarding his first term and alienation of some demographics by the Democrats (e.g., male voters via the abortion framing), led to his narrow re-election. The chapter concludes by noting Trump's re-election despite his documented first-term failures and lack of demonstrated competence, setting a potentially dangerous course based on the unvetted "Project 2025" agenda.

This covers the application of the civic virtue criterion, the detailed analysis of the Trump and Biden presidencies (up to the book's publication and the 2024 election), and the role of recent elections and crises in highlighting the competence deficit.

Chapter 13: What Does This Theory Tell Us? - Synthesizing the Findings

This chapter consolidates the findings from applying the Requisite Organization (R.O.) framework to the history of the American presidency. Craddock argues that viewing presidents through the lens of cognitive capability (logic levels) and time-horizon provides insights distinct from traditional historical rankings or assessments focused solely on Impact-horizon (policy outcomes). The key question shifts from "What was his impact?" to "Was the chosen president capable of solving the complex issues and crises faced during their term?".

Craddock presents Table 13.1, which categorizes presidents based on his assessment of their primary operating logic level within the Abstract Order (Levels 5-8) or, for a few, the Symbolic Order (Level 4 or below).

• Level 8 (Parallel Dynamic Logic, 50-100 yr TH): Six presidents assessed here, including Washington, Lincoln, FDR, Eisenhower. Considered "Very Competent."
• Level 7 (Serial Dynamic Logic, 20-50 yr TH): Thirteen presidents, including Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy, Reagan, and (late in term) Bill Clinton. Considered "Competent."
• Level 6 (Cumulative Static Logic, 10-20 yr TH): Thirteen presidents, including Madison, J.Q. Adams, Cleveland, Coolidge, Carter (grew into), Bush 41, Obama, Biden. Considered "Almost There: Marginal."
• Level 5 (Declarative Static Logic, 5-10 yr TH): Seven presidents, including Taft, Hoover, Ford, Bush 43, Trump. Considered "Non-Competent" for the full demands.
• Level 4 or Below (Symbolic Order): Four presidents (Tyler, Pierce, Buchanan, Harding). Considered "Clunkers," completely inadequate.
• Not Rateable: Three presidents died too early; Trump's second term is incomplete.

Craddock notes his assessments sometimes differ from mainstream experts, evaluating figures like Monroe, Polk, Grant, McKinley, LBJ, and Nixon higher, and Jackson, Ford, and Bush 43 lower based on applied logic and time-horizon rather than just policy outcomes or reputation.

A core finding emerges from analyzing Re-election Results (Table 13.3) correlated with these capability levels:

• Dynamic Logic Presidents (Levels 7 & 8): All who sought re-election won (100% success rate, counting FDR's multiple wins). None were defeated.
• Static Logic Presidents (Levels 5 & 6): The re-election rate drops significantly. At Level 6, only 4 out of 10 seeking re-election won (40% success). At Level 5, only 2 out of 7 won (28.6% success).
• Symbolic Logic Presidents (Level 4 or below): None attempted re-election, likely aware of their inadequacy.

Craddock interprets this stark difference as evidence that the electorate, over a full term, can discern competence and tends to reward presidents who demonstrate the dynamic capability needed to handle the job, aligning with V.O. Key Jr.'s concept of the "rational electorate". Trump's 2016 win is framed as an anomaly facilitated by the Electoral College and specific campaign dynamics, while his 2020 loss and 2024 win (attributed partly to voter memory lapse) reflect the historical pattern for Level 5 presidents.

The chapter also warns about the danger of Brokered Conventions. Given that modern party delegates are often selected based on candidate loyalty rather than assessed capability, their average C.I.P. level may be too low (Level 1 Declarative) to engage in the compromise (requiring Level 2 Cumulative logic) needed to select a nominee if the first ballot fails, risking party fragmentation or paralysis.

Chapter 14: The Future Four Years - Challenges and Solutions

This final chapter addresses the problems inherited by the incoming administration (Trump 2.0, as of the book's writing) and proposes solutions rooted in the R.O. framework and related concepts. Craddock expresses deep concern about the unresolved issues "kicked down the road" by a generation of less-than-competent presidents, warning they will worsen without effective leadership.

He critiques the start of Trump's anticipated second term, pointing to the establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under figures associated with "Project 2025" (an agenda Craddock argues was unvetted by voters) as an attempt to dismantle government functions ("starve the beast") and impose an absolutist, potentially anarchic agenda based on loyalty over competence. He sees Trump's renewed tariff threats and reliance on figures like Elon Musk (lacking public sector understanding) as repeating failed first-term patterns based on flawed definitions of efficiency and likely to cause further economic disruption.

The core solution proposed by Craddock lies in Education Reform. He revisits the concept of X-efficiency (Leibenstein), arguing that US firms lag competitors (particularly Japan) because they fail to adopt methods that maximize potential, such as those integrating quality control and requisite organizational structures (like hoshin kanri). He identifies critical omissions in American curricula:

• Statistical Quality Control (SQC): Essential for improving processes and products, making graduates more competitive.
• Requisite Organization Principles: Understanding hierarchy, capability levels, and time-span is needed for effective management.
• System Change Thinking: Crucial for understanding complex issues like climate change, where changes aren't linear.
• Efficiency Wage Theory: Understanding how pay linked to capability (vs. minimum wage) aligns workers and boosts productivity.

He suggests midcareer training programs and adding these topics to high school, trade school, and community college curricula. He also calls for changing accounting rules to treat training as an investment, not just a cost.

Other systemic issues requiring attention include:

• Controlling Debt: National, corporate, state/local, student, and individual debt levels pose a systemic risk ("debt-slavery").
• Reforming Communication/Workflow: Countering the "hyperactive hive mind" caused by email overload and lack of clear accountability (attention-fracking).
• Improving Management Training: Moving beyond purely financial analysis in MBA programs to include managing human capability.
• Eliminating Non-Compete Clauses: Removing restrictions that hinder labor mobility and fair competition.
• Rethinking Copyright Law: Returning to a shorter, fixed term (like the original Hamiltonian/Queen Anne model) to restore copyright as a dynamic driver of innovation rather than a static property right.
• Reforming the Primary System: Addressing the chaotic, state-by-state sequence that fails to vet for national-level competence.

The chapter concludes by reiterating the existential threat posed by leaders who operate below the requisite capability level, lack civic virtue, and flirt with absolutism or anarchy. Trump's second term is viewed with alarm, seen as potentially consolidating mob rule and dismantling constitutional norms. Craddock invokes the founders (Washington, Adams, Jefferson) who understood the dangers of unchecked power, factionalism, and societal decay when competence and civic virtue are absent. He suggests Andrew Cuomo showed potential Level 7 capability but was sidelined. The ultimate responsibility rests with the voters to recognize the stakes, educate themselves on the principles of competence outlined, and demand leaders capable of navigating the complex future and upholding the Republic for the "public good".